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AZ Tech Roundtable 2.0

AZ Tech Roundtable 2.0 with Matt Battaglia

The show where EntrepreneursTop Executives, Founders, and Investors come to share insights about the future of business


AZ TRT 2.0 looks at the new trends in business, & how classic industries are evolving

Common Topics Discussed: Startups, Founders, Funds & Venture Capital, Business, Entrepreneurship, Biotech, Blockchain / Crypto, Executive Comp, Investing, Stocks, Real Estate + Alternative Investments, and more… 


AZ TRT Podcast Home Page:

‘Best Of’ AZ TRT Podcast: Click Here 

Wealth for Life: HERE


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Nov 9, 2022

Luck & Risk + How to Build a Crystal Ball - BRT – WFL S03 EP56 (155) 11-6-2022


What We Learned This Week

  • 4 Kinds of Luck - Blind, Hard Work, Preparation, Reputation
  • Crystal Ball - Read to get Data on Tech Trends
  • Types of Risk - Interest Rate, Inflation, Play it Safe
  • Market Risk - Buffet Rule # 1 - Never Lose $, how Mkt losses affect your portfolio & timeline



Co-Host: Denver NowiczPresident - Wealth For Life 

Denver is an advisor with nearly 20 years experience working with clients in investments and insurance, designing retirement plans with a combo of both. He takes us through different strategies for clients to get the best allocations for their money over the long term. It is the Combo Strategy of both Offense and Defense, the synergy of the mix, not ‘All or Nothing’.



4 Kinds of Luck in Business

In 1980, Bill Gates and Microsoft struck a software deal with IBM to create an operating system for their computers. This is considered the greatest business deal in history. 


Not only did a then relatively unknown software company called Microsoft get its biggest customer ever, they also struck a non exclusive licensing deal to sell the same operating system to other companies. This deal put Microsoft on the map, while simultaneously flipping the future of these 2 major computer companies. Microsoft would one day supplant IBM in the industry. 

There are many details and conflicting stories to how this legendary deal went down.
(For the Details: HERE

One thing is for sure, there was some luck involved.

Bill Gates mother was on the United Way board, and knew the CEO of IBM, so a personal connection was established. When IBM first approached Gates, he connected them with Gary Kildall of DRI as he was the premiere software developer. But IBM and Kildall could not cut a deal, and IBM came back to Gates and Microsoft. 

On the other side, Microsoft had established themselves as a fast growing computer company by 1980, and had caught IBM's attention. It's BASIC software already had hundreds of thousands of users. Also the MS-DOS software turned out to be more compatible and cheaper then Kildall's software. 

When reviewing this deal, one can ask - 
Did they get lucky?
Was it Skill that got the deal? 
Was it a combo of both?

Maybe there different types of luck. Let's look at 4 Kinds...

Blind Luck or Dumb Luck 
You just got lucky. You were in the right place, at the right time.

This is nearly impossible to repeat, so cannot bank on this plan of action over the long term. Enjoy the benefits while you can, but limited lessons you can learn here. 

Luck thru Hard Work & Persistence
You got lucky because of a compounding effect of consistent hard work over time. You are out there doing work, meeting contacts, providing value, etc. Then you post marketing content often, discussing your work and showing case studies. You also work with many different people, who you foster the relationship and they recommend you.

This system can be replicated if one is willing to do the work.
'The harder I work, the luckier I get.' 

Luck thru Preparation, to Discover Opportunities 
You got lucky because you are the 'eternal student', always researching about your industry, or an adjacent one. Because of this you find the growing trends to take advantage of, or meet the contacts who open your eyes to a potential deal or new market. 

This system also can be replicated, assuming your have the intellectual curiosity to do deep dives on topics and meet the relevant people involved.

Of course, you also have to do the work. 'Luck = Chance + Preparation'. 

Luck Because of Reputation
You got lucky because you have been doing such good work for years that has provided you a stellar professional reputation as the go to guy. When someone thinks 'X', your name comes up. The question is asked, 'who is the best guy at X', and they contact you for help. 

This system is repeatable if you do the work to build your reputation ('it precedes you') thru years of good work and great results + promotion again. 

For more of this topic, go straight to the source:

Dr. James H. Austin wrote a book (in 1978) breaking down the 4 kinds of Luck: Chase, Chance, and Creativity: The Lucky Art of Novelty

How to Build Your Own Crystal Ball


Older people sit down and ask, ‘what is it?’ But the Boy asks ‘what can I do with it.’ 

Don't fall into an outdated mindset. Keep up with the trends. - Steve Jobs


The best in business understand how to Anticipate the Future. They see the Train coming around the corner.

Business and Technology trends are ever changing.  To survive you must keep up with what has happened in the industry. More than anything this is a mindset of ongoing learning.

Warren Buffett is an avid reader. He reads 4 – 5 hours per day looking for ideas. He’s lucky if he finds a few good ideas in a year. This has been deemed his super power.


If you want your own Crystal Ball to see the future, you need to be constantly researching and reading what is going on. From the internet to newsletters to conferences to books, there is no lack of options for where to find information.

There are so many free blogs and newsletters to choose from on niche subjects of tech, VC, or crypto to name a few. If you need the deeper dive, find a paid subscription service doing research on an industry for business or investing.

Get the Data. You need people who can provide you the intel about an industry.

Insiders are the best source of intelligence. Build a Network of people ‘in the know’ in an industry you want to know more about. If you need to know about a few industries, then make a few contacts, whom each represent an industry.

You also need to form business partnerships so you keep learning and evolving. A change in an industry on the tech side, may also mean a financial change or legal change. A good team of Advisors (accountant, attorney, tax advisor, financial consultant, etc) can be invaluable as they deal with multiple clients and see things that may not currently be going on in your business.


Disruption in tech and business is ever present.

It is not uncommon for someone to change careers 2 to 3x in their lifetime. Being aware of the trends can help to make informed decisions of what is going on.

Is the industry you are working in growing or dying? If the industry is on a downward trend, what industry can you jump to on the way up? Knowing what is going on industry wide and the tech trends can affect your career or business.


Real World Example

We will use the tech industry as an example on keeping up with trends, since it impacts so many other industries. Here are some Tips of where to get insights on the Tech Industry:


Tech Trends to be aware of from a quick search on Google.

Each of the below technologies overlaps in many industries today.

Regardless if you work in tech, you have probably heard of many of them.




Playing it safe and taking no chances is still risky inflation risk if you are just holding cash and putting your money in the mattress, inflation eats away at the value of the cash and your purchasing power

Think of your business as an asset class whether it is a digital business or a traditional physical business, the old brick and mortar

Buy assets to fight inflation, as they appreciate over time  

Interest rate risk when the interest rate for loans rises, it cost you more to get money, called the cost of capital

Dangerous to use credit cards as you have high debt with higher interest rates

When interest rates go up it makes a mortgage more expensive and it’s harder to buy a house

Savers thrive in a high interest rate environments, and savers are punished in low interest rate times

Higher interest rates hurts real estate, and business as it puts a strain on the industries. Again, cost of capital to get loans cost more because the interest rates is higher.

On the flipside business or real estate is cheaper to buy in a depressed market, and the return on the asset over the long term is a good opportunity even if interest rates are higher.

ROIC - return on invested capital -  Ex: put $100K in investment and cash flow $50K a year over 5 years, means you put in invested $100K, & got $250K or a 2.5x ROIC

Even in high interest rates, these investment numbers make sense

The old adage don’t jump over dollars to get pennies, monitor the big picture

Insurance strategies have matching dollars like 3 to 1 tax-free matching, leverage can expand to your ROI

Credit card co’s, use debt to buy things, inflation and higher interest rates help

Market Risk and Market Volatility

Can be hard to handle emotionally, as market losses Mount.

We’re always told to not be emotional about investments but it’s very hard. A lot of people just invest in the stock market they hope one thing happens buy low and Sell high as long as the stock appreciates everything will go OK we’re banking on appreciation only

From 2010 to 2020 this was a good strategy, as the market was great, up 329%, but from 2000 to 2010, the market had almost a 0% return

2000 to 2020 – up 304%, or 6.74% per year

Can you trust traditional stock market returns?

You need defensive assets to have balance

In 2022, you lost 50% if you owned tech stocks, Facebook stock has lost 70%

How long is it going to take to get it back?

Wealthy do not want to go backwards, they have a percentage of their portfolio in stocks, with an overall portfolio of multiple assets

Buffett Rule #1, never lose money, Rule #2, remember Rule #1

Your advisor should know asset classes

Incorporate an insurance strategy with principal protection

Focus on 2 to 3 items in your protfolio

Best return is on your core business, returns will probably be better than what you get in the market  

Break up your assets into: businesses, stocks, real estate, insurance strategies

Entrepreneurs think different, as entrepreneurship is not really about recessions Recession is not a common topic, as entrepreneurs are always looking for where the opportunities and trends are heading





More Info on WFL and Tax Free Matching: HERE



Wealth For Life Topic:


Link to Taxes Show on 10/31/2021 w/ Denver: Here

Link to Offense / Defense Show on 6/6/2021 w/ Denver: Here

Link to Shows, Denver was a Guest: Here


Investing Topic:

More - BRT Best of:



Thanks for Listening.

Please Subscribe to the BRT Podcast. 



Business Roundtable with Matt Battaglia

The show where EntrepreneursHigh Level Executives, Business Owners, and Investors come to share insight and ideas about the future of businessBRT 2.0 looks at the new trends in business, and how classic industries are evolving

Common Topics Discussed: Business, Entrepreneurship, Investing, Stocks, Cannabis, Tech, Blockchain / Crypto, Real Estate, Legal, Sales, Charity, and more… 

BRT Podcast Home Page:

‘Best Of’ BRT Podcast: Click Here

BRT Podcast on Google: Click Here

BRT Podcast on Spotify: Click Here                   

More Info:

KFNX Info:


Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the Hosts, Guests and Speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent (or affiliates, members, managers, employees or partners), or any Station, Podcast Platform, Website or Social Media that this show may air on. All information provided is for educational and entertainment purposes. Nothing said on this program should be considered advice or recommendations in: business, legal, real estate, crypto, tax accounting, investment, etc. Always seek the advice of a professional in all business ventures, including but not limited to: investments, tax, loans, legal, accounting, real estate, crypto, contracts, sales, marketing, other business arrangements, etc.