Jun 30, 2026
Predicting the Future: AI, Geopolitics & Better Decision Making
w/ Anthony Vinci of VICO
- AZ TRT S07 EP10 (292) 6-28-2026
What We Learned This Week
Think in Probabilities
Great decision-makers don't predict one future.
They prepare for multiple possible futures.
Look for Leading Indicators
Government budgets, regulations, elections, trade policy, and geopolitical developments often signal future trends before markets fully respond.
AI Is Becoming a Strategic Advisor
AI is increasingly functioning as a research assistant, intelligence analyst, and scenario-planning tool—not just a content generator.
Everything Is Connected
Politics, economics, technology, energy, and national security influence one another more than ever before.
Understanding those relationships creates a competitive advantage.
Focus on Second-Order Effects
Many investors react to headlines.
The bigger opportunities often lie in anticipating the ripple effects that follow.
AZ TRT Podcast
Predictive Forecasting: AI, Geopolitics & Better Decision Making
Guest: Anthony Vinci
Links: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anthony-vinci/
Anthony Vinci is the Founder and CEO of VICO, an AI-powered forecasting company that helps governments, financial institutions, and corporations assess political, geopolitical, and economic event risk. Rather than predicting a single outcome, VICO converts news, expert analysis, and real-world signals into probability-based forecasts to improve decision-making.
Before founding VICO, Anthony served as the first Chief Technology Officer of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), where he led the integration of artificial intelligence into U.S. intelligence operations. He also held senior leadership roles at Bridgewater Associates and Cerberus Capital Management, focusing on technology, national security, aerospace, and strategic investments.
Anthony is the author of The Fourth Intelligence Revolution, recognized by the Financial Times as one of the Best Books of 2025. His work focuses on the intersection of AI, intelligence, geopolitics, and global finance.
Theme
Today's world moves faster than ever. Political events, wars, technological breakthroughs, trade policy, and artificial intelligence all create ripple effects throughout the economy and financial markets.
The question isn't simply:
"What will happen?"
Instead, it's:
"What are the most likely outcomes, and how should we prepare for them?"
That is the foundation of predictive forecasting.
Segment 1
The World Has Become an Event-Driven Economy
One of the biggest themes discussed was how major events rarely stay isolated. Instead, they create ripple effects throughout politics, economics, and financial markets.
Examples from 2026 include:
- The conflict involving Iran
- Concerns over the Strait of Hormuz disrupting global shipping
- Oil price volatility
- Inflation concerns
- AI adoption across industries
- Global trade tensions
For example, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted, the effects could extend far beyond oil:
- higher energy prices
- increased transportation costs
- higher inflation
- pressure on consumer spending
- lower corporate profits
- political consequences during the 2026 midterm elections
One geopolitical event can trigger dozens of second- and third-order consequences.
Narrative Economics
Markets increasingly react to information almost instantly.
News travels within seconds through:
- X (Twitter)
- social media
- financial news
- AI-generated analysis
Sometimes markets move more from the narrative than from the underlying facts.
The speed of information has increased volatility.
AI as an Intelligence Analyst
AI is evolving beyond a simple chatbot.
Examples discussed:
- Claude drafting emails in seconds
- ChatGPT analyzing massive amounts of information
- AI summarizing research
- AI identifying patterns humans might overlook
Rather than replacing executives, AI increasingly acts like an executive assistant or intelligence analyst that can evaluate possible outcomes and estimate probabilities.
Segment 2
Forecasting Through Leading Indicators
One of Anthony's core ideas is that forecasting begins with identifying early signals rather than reacting after events occur.
Examples include:
Government Spending
Watching federal budgets provides clues about future economic priorities.
For example:
A proposal to increase defense spending from roughly $1 trillion toward $1.5 trillion could benefit industries such as:
- aerospace
- defense contractors
- cybersecurity
- satellite technology
Markets often recognize these trends before the spending actually occurs.
Elections
Forecasting elections isn't just about polling.
Leading indicators include:
- redistricting
- economic conditions
- inflation
- employment
- approval ratings
- legislative trends
These become measurable inputs rather than opinions.
Tariffs and Trade
Tariffs and sanctions affect:
- supply chains
- inflation
- manufacturing
- exports
- corporate earnings
Rather than relying solely on headlines, investors can monitor government announcements and policy developments as early indicators.
VICO
Anthony explained that VICO was created to help organizations answer questions like:
"What happens if tariffs increase?"
"What happens if a regional conflict expands?"
"What happens if inflation persists?"
Instead of producing opinions, the platform attempts to quantify probabilities so businesses can make better strategic decisions.
Current users include:
- investment firms
- hedge funds
- insurance companies
- corporations
- government agencies
The platform is also available through Bloomberg Terminal.
Segment 3
Thinking Like an Intelligence Officer
Anthony explained that investing and intelligence analysis are surprisingly similar.
Neither profession knows the future with certainty.
Instead, both attempt to improve decision-making through probabilities.
Questions include:
- What's the upside?
- What's the downside?
- What scenarios exist?
- What is the probability of each?
Instead of asking for certainty, professionals ask for better odds.
AI as a Thought Partner
Rather than replacing human judgment, AI becomes another analyst at the table.
It helps:
- challenge assumptions
- compare scenarios
- estimate probabilities
- reduce emotional decision-making
The objective isn't perfect predictions.
It's consistently making better-informed decisions.
Indicators and Warnings (I&W)
Government intelligence agencies constantly monitor "Indicators and Warnings."
Examples include:
- military activity
- cyber threats
- terrorism
- supply chain disruptions
- political instability
The same thinking can apply to investors and business owners by identifying leading indicators before markets fully react.
Rare Earth Minerals
A fascinating discussion centered on rare earth materials.
These minerals are essential for:
- semiconductors
- missiles
- satellites
- electric vehicles
- MRI and CT scanners
- advanced electronics
Although called "rare," many are relatively abundant. The challenge is that mining and processing are concentrated in a handful of countries, particularly China.
This explains why governments increasingly view domestic production as a national security issue.
Segment 4
Second- and Third-Order Effects
One of the strongest concepts discussed was cascading consequences.
Instead of focusing only on one event, ask:
"What happens next?"
Example:
Conflict with Iran↓
Shipping disruptions↓
Higher oil prices↓
Higher transportation costs↓
Inflation↓
Reduced consumer spending↓
Lower corporate earnings↓
Market volatility↓
Political consequences↓
Policy changes
Understanding these chains of events helps improve forecasting.
AI Regulation
AI is both part of the opportunity and part of the risk.
Potential future regulations may focus on:
- cybersecurity
- national security
- privacy
- export controls
- access to advanced AI models
- computing infrastructure
One challenge will be balancing innovation with security while remaining globally competitive.
Anthony noted that governments may have access to AI capabilities that are not immediately available to the private sector, highlighting the strategic importance of advanced AI systems.
Closing Thought
One of the biggest lessons from this conversation is that forecasting isn't about predicting the future with certainty—it's about improving the quality of your decisions. The best investors, business leaders, and intelligence professionals don't rely on opinions alone. They gather data, monitor leading indicators, evaluate multiple scenarios, and assign probabilities to each possible outcome. In an increasingly interconnected world, those who think like forecasters rather than reactors will be better positioned to navigate uncertainty and identify opportunities before the crowd.
Tech Topic:
https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Tech-Startup-VC-Cybersecurity-Energy-Science
Best of Tech: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/size/5/?search=best+of+tech
‘Best Of’ Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Best+of+BRT
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