Jul 6, 2022
BRT Rebalance w/ Barry Ritholtz: Best of Investing 2022
- BRT S03 EP29 (128) 7-3-2022
Things We Learned This Week
- Masters of Business Podcast Qs - Who are your mentors? Philosophy? What books are you reading? Advice to graduates? What do you wish you knew 30 years ago?
- Three Keys to Being an Investor: Process, Behavior, Humility
- Recession Signs to look For – States Expanding or Detracting, Sahm Rule on unemployment uptick, Yield Curve – is it inverted?
Guest: Barry Ritholtz
ABOUT BARRY RITHOLTZ & MASTERS IN BUSINESS
Bloomberg Opinion columnist Barry Ritholtz looks at the people and ideas that shape markets, investing and business.
Barry Ritholtz has spent his career helping people spot their own investment errors and to learn how to better manage their own financial behaviors. He is the creator of The Big Picture, often ranked as the number one financial blog to follow by The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and others.
Barry is the creator and host of Bloomberg's Masters in Business radio podcast, and a featured columnist at the Washington Post. He is the author of Bailout Nation: How Greed and Easy Money Corrupted Wall Street and Shook the World Economy (Wiley, 2009). In addition to serving as Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, he is also on the advisory boards of Riskalyze, and Peer Street, two leading financial technology startups bringing transparency and analytics to the investment business.
Barry has named one of the "15 Most Important Economic Journalists" in the United States, and has been called one of The 25 Most Dangerous People in Financial Media. When not working, he can be found with his wife and their two dogs on the north shore of Long Island.
https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/series/master-in-business
NOTES:
Masters of Business podcast inspiration –
On a plane watching finance news, interview of reclusive Hedge Fund Manager.
Who are your mentors? Philosophy? What books are you reading? Advice to graduates? What do you wish you knew 30 years ago?
Three key things
Process – ability to distinguish between skill and luck. Like in sports at high levels in investment industry – differences are minimal.
ARK Cathy Wood in 2020.
Behavior – how to manage and stay calm, control limbic system, work through bad market.
Humility – acknowledge serendipity and luck in life, could have worked differently.
Gates not the first to be offered IBM deal. Other tech entrepreneurs visited Xerox Parq
Jobs master of design, even on back of machine where no one looks.
Inflation Hawks screaming for 15 years, finally right
Three signs of Recession – good indicators:
- States – amount in expansion or contraction . Number of states growing or declining - % all 50 expanding. Philly Federal – State Coincident Indexes (get ink) hard to have recession when all states doing well.
- Sahm Rule – unemployment uptick .75 basis points in three month period from prior lows, unemployment mid 2022 is good.
FRED – St. Louis Fed monitors indicator (get ink)
- Yield Curve – is it inverted? How long, how deep, careful for false positive data. Bonds interest rates long term higher than short term bonds, inverted when S/T rates higher than L/T.
Six months is forever in economy, recession looks unlikely. 2023 – all bets off.
Never know what disruption can occur, like Russia invading Ukraine.
Outlook for the Knicks to make the Playoffs?
Knicks will be good when they get new ownership who invests in the product. Need good quantitative analysis like how they acquired players in the heyday of the 1990s. Look at the turnaround of the NY Mets with Steve Cohen buying the team recently.
Best of Investing 2022
Seg. 2 of BRT S03 EP03 (102) 1-16-2022 – BRT - Retirement & Income Planning from SEP IRA, 401K, to Roth IRA + Tax Brackets to Buckets
- Retirement & Income Planning
- Qualified Plans: ie - 401K & Roth IRA
- SEP IRA for business owners, can defer 25% of income if setup correctly
- Tax Brackets - tiered system of 10%, then 12%, 22% up to 35% - with more income, pushed into higher bracket and you pay more
- Tax Buckets (3) - Taxed (W2 income), Tax Deferred (401K, IRA), Tax Free (Roth IRA, Life Insurance)
Denver Nowicz, President - Wealth For Life
https://twitter.com/denvernowicz
Denver is an advisor with nearly 20 years experience working with clients in investments and insurance, designing retirement plans with a combo of both. He takes us through different strategies for clients to get the best allocations for their money over the long term. It is the Combo Strategy of both Offense and Defense, the synergy of the mix, not ‘All or Nothing’.
FULL SHOW: HERE
More Info on WFL and Tax Free Matching: HERE
Wealth For Life Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Wealth+For+Life
Link to Taxes Show on 10/31/2021 w/ Denver: Here
https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Wealth+For+Life+
Seg. 2 of BRT S03 EP07 (106) 2-13-2022 – The Science of Hitting (TSOH) & Investing w/ Alex Morris
FULL SHOW: HERE
- The Science of Hitting (TSOH) comes from the Ted Williams baseball book on batting and strike zone observations: ie – he tracked his average in each zone of the batter box, and had a higher average when he swung at pitches in a certain zone
- TSOH Investment Philosophy is Value Investing, classic Graham / Buffet style – buy high quality co’s w/ good mgmt, L/T trends, and a Moat - Buffet quote: Investing is a game with no called strikes…can just wait for your pitch
- Long Term Investment Horizon – looking 5 to even 10 years out, for earnings and sales growth
- Key Value Drivers for a stock - Earnings Growth & quality of earnings, Price & Sale increases, ‘volume growth’
- P/E Type Metrics & GAAP Accounting is helpful but may not be useful with R&D, future sales, and volume growth. Example: Netflix – analyze cash expenditures vs. financials which have improved , what are the L/T – trends
Guest: Alex Morris, TSOH Investment Research
Blog - https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/my-investment-philosophy
LKIN - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alex-morris-cfa-47b87027/
Twitter - https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing
Alex Morris, CFA publishes equities research through the TSOH Investment Research Service on Substack. He has written investment related articles on Gurufocus and worked in the finance industry (RIA's) for the past 10+ years. He is a CFA® charterholder and graduated with my MBA from the University of Florida in April 2015. Prior to starting his TSOH service, he spent ten years as an Equity Analysts at financial firms.
Seg. 2 of BRT S03 EP17 (116) 4-24-2022 – Money for the Rest of Us w/ David Stein
FULL SHOW: HERE
https://brt-show.libsyn.com/brt-s03-ep17-115-4-24-2022-money-for-the-rest-of-us-w-david-stein
- Investment vs. Speculation vs. Gambling: You must understand the difference and recognize which camp the product you’re considering is in
- The three drivers of asset class performance: These all relate to cash and earnings, cash flow, cash flow growth and change in valuation, and how each impacts the future price of an asset class
- The Efficient Market Hypothesis vs Adaptive Market Hypothesis: which combines behavioral finance w/ EMH
- Wayfinding: An alternative to traditional rebalancing of asset allocation - use current market conditions to help evaluate where you should increase / decrease your exposure, depending on how the asset is doing currently
- Modern Portfolio Theory vs. The Asset Garden Approach when adjusting asset allocation, focused on diversification between return drivers - Like landscaping, there are rules of thumb, but there’s freedom to create and build the portfolio. And it’s much easier to make changes.
Guest: David Stein, Money for the Rest of Us
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jdstein/
https://moneyfortherestofus.com/
https://moneyfortherestofus.com/about/
Book: https://moneyfortherestofus.com/how-to-invest-book/
David Stein’s Bio:
David helps individuals become better and more confident investors through his writing, audio, and video. He hosts the personal finance podcast Money For the Rest of Us. The show reaches more than 40,000 listeners per episode and has over 10 million downloads. The podcast has received mention from The New York Times, Forbes, The Chicago Tribune, and the U.S. News and World Report. David also provides investment insights and model portfolios to 1,000 members of the Money For the Rest of Us Plus community.
David Stein author of Money for the Rest of Us 10 Questions to Master Successful Investing Prior to launching the podcast, David was Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Portfolio Strategist at Fund Evaluation Group, LLC, a $33 billion investment advisory firm.
Seg. 2 of 4/3/2022 – Options vs Stocks & Trading vs Investing w Tom Sosnoff of tastytrade
FULL SHOW: HERE
- Implied Volatility & Time Decay – options begins with volatility, on a clock so Mechanics (forget mind set) on how to setup a trade is key
- tastytrade is a media network based on Math (Probability & Statistics - Look at the Math), trading & focus on markets
- Limited Profitability & Unlimited Risk when you Sell Puts w/ 80% chance of success - Be a Seller of Options – let Market beat you, slight edge
- Trade Small, Trade Often - Law of Large Numbers w/ 45 DTE Strike Price of 1 SD – Exit or Roll at 21 DTE
- Options Trading Teaches Life Lessons – Important to: take risks, learn to take risks, make quick decisions, be decisive about those decisions.
Guest: Tom Sosnoff of tastytrade
https://twitter.com/tastytrade
Tom Sosnoff, founder and co-CEO of tastytrade
Tom Sosnoff is an online brokerage innovator and financial educator. Tom is a serial entrepreneur who co-founded thinkorswim in 1999, tastytrade in 2011, tastyworks in 2017, helped to launch the award- winning Luckbox Magazine in 2019, and in 2020 he created the first new futures exchange in 20 years, The Small Exchange. Leveraging over 20 years of experience as a CBOE market maker, Tom is driven by the passion to educate self-directed investors. A true visionary, after his years on the floor he saw the need to build and design superior software platforms and brokerage firms that specialized in complex financial strategies.
Seg.2 of BRT S03 EP22 (122) 5-29-2022 – The One Thing w/ Jay Papasan of Keller Williams Realty
FULL SHOW: HERE
- The One Thing – Power of Focus, Find your 1 thing - Live Purposefully & be Accountable
- Dominos - Priority in Latin = First, what is your first Domino? knock it down and all others lined up will fall
- Time Block - Focus Time the first few hours of each day, 'Battleground' - fight to block out this time
- Success has a Roadmap – it leaves clues, Modeling & Develop Habits in Life, Bus & Real Estate Investing
- Productivity Thieves - Learn to Say No, pick tasks carefully, Multitasking is a Waste of Time
Guest: Jay Papsan, VP of Keller Williams Realty
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jaypapasan/
https://twitter.com/jaypapasan
Jay Papasan is a bestselling author and serves as vice president and executive editor at Keller Williams Realty Inc, the world’s largest real estate company. He is also co-owner and co-founder of several successful businesses, including Keller INK, Keller Capital, and, alongside his wife Wendy, Papasan Properties Group in Austin, Texas.
When Jay first moved to Austin, he joined Keller Williams Realty Inc, and soon began working directly with the founder, Gary Keller. In 2003, he co-authored The Millionaire Real Estate Agent alongside Gary Keller and Dave Jenks.
Clips from BRT S03 EP11 (110) 3-13-2022 – 401K – Turns Spenders into Savers w/ Jean Smart of Penelope & Ted Benna ‘Father of the 401K’
FULL SHOW: HERE
- 401K turns Spenders into Savers
- 401K provides Tax Deferral now, lowers Taxable Income
- Penelope serves Microbiz, business of 5 – 50 employees who are underserved by major financial institutions
- Simplify choices, and streamline the 401K process, reduce fees so all size business can participate
- Ted Benna – Father of the 401K, 401K may not be appropriate to all people or business, choose 401K or IRA based on needs & size of business
Guests: Jean Smart, Founder of Penelope
https://www.linkedin.com/company/penelopeco
Jean Smart is the Founder/CEO. She has overseen the building of a cloud based recordkeeping system from scratch and they have begun to take on clients. I have helped them shape what they are offering using what I have learned working with small businesses. Their goal is to help micro female and minority owned businesses pick the right plan - not just a plan.
Guests: Ted Benna, Benna 401K
Ted Benna, Father of the 401K, has worked in pension and retirement benefits industry for 60 years, and literally wrote the book on the 401K. He was a pioneer in the early 80s in designing the early 401K Plans, and then getting them approved by the IRS to be the model still used today.
Books:
401K Forty Years Later (2018) – history of the 401K
401K & IRA for Dummies Updated Version (2021)
Ted Benna 1st appearance on BRT Podcast in 8/2021
Topic: Ted Benna, the Father of the 401k Covers It All, History, pensions, Fees & More
Full Show: HERE
‘Best Of’ Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Best+of+BRT
Investing Topic: https://brt-show.libsyn.com/category/Investing-Stocks-Bonds-Retirement
More 'Best of Investing': Here
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Business Roundtable with Matt Battaglia
The show where Entrepreneurs, High Level Executives, Business Owners, and Investors come to share insight and ideas about the future of business. BRT 2.0 looks at the new trends in business, and how classic industries are evolving.
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